I think, Noel Maurer has not spent enough time thinking about the implications of Noel Maurer's work.
What you are missing is that unpredictability, essentially, means that no agreements on sharing the rent from cooperation with the US can be worth much: at any point the US government can abrogate it under the slimmest of provocations. Of course, that, in turn, implies that the actual cost of refusing to cooperate has already gone sharply down: we are fucked if we don't, but we are equally screwed if we do. Once that is recognized: and, methinks, it will be recognized pretty soon, given the last few days - nobody has any reason to cooperate. In fact, if an American country attempts to, the newly predatory US may be assumed to be unable to commit to not trying to grab the entire surplus. Given that, the national consolidatoin against the gringo-imposed humiliation becomes not only natural, but also quite costless in effect.
Of course, Noel Maurer would have suggested that, given that the US can no longer commit to no predation, one should try to look for a "third force" that could be paid off with some of the surplus to make predation either unfeasible or, at least, costly. Viewed from that standpoint, China may actually play a positive role in the US relationships with the rest of the hemisphere: or else, US might be able play a positive role in the Chinese relationships with the same. Of course, that would only be a second-best - but the first-best is no longer on offer.
Randy! You blocked me? How extraordinarily unexpected!
I came here actually to state that my above predictions are looking like they were wrong, and discuss why I got it wrong. I was thinking about writing a post about it! But now I see that you have blocked me, which saddens me, sir. Especially since I think I know why.
I think, Noel Maurer has not spent enough time thinking about the implications of Noel Maurer's work.
What you are missing is that unpredictability, essentially, means that no agreements on sharing the rent from cooperation with the US can be worth much: at any point the US government can abrogate it under the slimmest of provocations. Of course, that, in turn, implies that the actual cost of refusing to cooperate has already gone sharply down: we are fucked if we don't, but we are equally screwed if we do. Once that is recognized: and, methinks, it will be recognized pretty soon, given the last few days - nobody has any reason to cooperate. In fact, if an American country attempts to, the newly predatory US may be assumed to be unable to commit to not trying to grab the entire surplus. Given that, the national consolidatoin against the gringo-imposed humiliation becomes not only natural, but also quite costless in effect.
Of course, Noel Maurer would have suggested that, given that the US can no longer commit to no predation, one should try to look for a "third force" that could be paid off with some of the surplus to make predation either unfeasible or, at least, costly. Viewed from that standpoint, China may actually play a positive role in the US relationships with the rest of the hemisphere: or else, US might be able play a positive role in the Chinese relationships with the same. Of course, that would only be a second-best - but the first-best is no longer on offer.
Randy! You blocked me? How extraordinarily unexpected!
I came here actually to state that my above predictions are looking like they were wrong, and discuss why I got it wrong. I was thinking about writing a post about it! But now I see that you have blocked me, which saddens me, sir. Especially since I think I know why.